House: Complete 2010 Outlook

78 thoughts on “House: Complete 2010 Outlook”

1. We are likely going to have to work very hard to defend AL-02, AL-05, CO-04, ID-01, MD-01, NY-24, NY-29, TX-17, VA-02, and VA-05.  If things get 1994 bad, many of these other seats will start weakening as well.  

2. Apparently she was supposed to retire this year, but the GOP convinced her to stay for one more term. I think that this area could be prime territory in 2010 (if she does retire).  

3. Some districts don’t really make sense… A lot of the California districts, AZ-02, etc. etc. etc.

   LA-06, Bill Cassidy is a Republican, his name is blue.  And TX-07 comes up twice.  

4. McCotter is so vulnerable!  We actually have a decent bench in the district, too, despite the less than spectacular candidates we had this year.  Speaker Andy Dillon would be an excellent choice, and he’s term limited, so he needs a new job.  My State Representative, Marc Corriveau, would be competitive, but I just can’t see him leaving Lansing.  There are other various officials who could make a race of it, including Wayne County Commissioner Kevin McNamara and Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano.  It should be a good year for Eleventh District Dems if we can get one of these candidates to run.

5. On the races out west I’m watching.

   Colorado:

   4th District- As long as Betsy Markey provides good service to her constituents, she’ll be fine. This district may have a “red history”, but it’s trending blue rather quickly. Time is now on Markey’s side. My initial thought is “Leans Democratic”.

   New Mexico:

   1st District- Martin Heinrich should be OK here. This seat is quite blue, and Heinrich has a good ABQ base. My initial rating here has to be “Likely Democratic”.

   2nd District- Harry Teague really surprised me with his BIG win this year! Still, he’ll have some work to do to stay safe & fend off possible GOP challengers. My first thought here is “Leans Democratic”.

   Arizona:

   1st District- Ann Kirkpatrick won nicely this year, but nothing’s really guaranteed here. Hopefully because Kirkpatrick’s used to constituent service, she should be OK. Right now, I’m thinking this “Leans Democratic”.

   3rd District- Is there a Dem in local office we can run? I think Shadegg isn’t as strong as he thought he was. I’m thinking “Likely Republican” right now, and this can quickly be upgraded if we get a quality challenger and/or a Napolitano v. McCain Senate race to boost us downticket.

   5th District- Harry Mitchell looks like a good fit for this district, but he’ll again have to look in the rearview mirror to make sure he’s up for whatever the GOP throws his way. This looks like “Leans Democratic” to me.

   Nevada:

   2nd District- Do we have another Dem to run? Heller isn’t as “invincible” as he thinks he is. And if he leaves this seat open to run for something else, we should take advantage of it. It’s “Likely Republican” right now.

   3rd District- Dina Titus knows this area well. She should be OK. However, we just don’t know what the GOP will do or who they’ll run here. I see it as “Leans Democratic” now.

6. Very eye opening to see the ages of some of these Congressmen.  The worst-case scenario for the defensive year of 2010 is a regionwide purge of even “safe” Blue Dog Democrats in the South.  If Connecticut was willing to unload Chris Shays and Rob Simmons in anti-Republican years, who’s to say Tennessee wouldn’t choose to do the same to Bart Gordon or Lincoln Davis?

   1. If republicans filibuster many democratic pieces of legislation seen as important to turning the economy around, Obama might have a case to make that republicans are largely responsible.  But it doesn’t seem as though that would be likely.  Voters are more likely to blame the party in control – us.

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